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PROSPECTS
FOR THE 2011/2012 RAINFALL SEASON IN MALAWI
SUMMARY: Normal
total rainfall amounts are expected over most parts of
Malawi during the 2011/2012 rainfall season.
_____________________________________________________________________
Climate scientists from the National Meteorological Services within
the SADC region, including Malawi, met from 17th
to 28th August 2011 in
Windhoek, Namibia. The aim of the meeting was
to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2011/2012 rainfall
season for the SADC region. This was presented to users at
the fifteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum
(SARCOF-15) which took place
from 29th to 31st August 2011 at the
same venue.
The consensus forecast was prepared using national inputs
with additional contributions from International Research
Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI, USA), National Centre
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, USA), European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), UK Met Office,
and Meteo France. The rainfall seasonal forecast is based on
models that use scientifically established relationships
between rainfall over Southern Africa and Sea Surface
Temperatures (SSTs) over the oceans. While
some models continue to predict El
Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions which
imply neither El Nino nor La Nina, the majority are
predicting increasingly negative SSTs (cooling) in the
central tropical Pacific Ocean, implying the return of La
Nina conditions, up to March 2012.
For Malawi, the consensus outlook indicates that during the
period October to December 2011, the northern half of the
country has 35% chance of rainfall total being above normal,
40% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below
normal while the Southern half has 25% chance of rainfall
total being above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 35%
chance of being below normal. During the period January to
March 2012, the northern half of Malawi has 35% chance of
rainfall total being above normal, 40% chance of being
normal and 25% chance of being below normal while the
Southern half has 40% chance of rainfall total being above
normal, 35% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being
below normal.
Based on the above analysis, the 2011/2012 forecast
indicates that from October to December 2011, the northern
half of the country will receive normal to above normal
total rainfall amounts while the southern half will
experience normal to below normal total rainfall amounts.
The greater part of the country will experience normal to
above normal total rainfall amounts during January to March
2012.
This forecast covers the rainfall season from October 2011
to March 2012 and is relevant only to seasonal time-scales
and relatively large areas. It does not fully account for
local and month to month variations in distribution of
rainfall such as localised dry spells and flash floods.
This seasonal forecast is issued to users as a planning
tool. For day to day operations, users are advised to make
use of the available short and medium range forecasts and
the 10-day Rainfall and Agrometeorological bulletin.
For further information contact: The Director of Climate
Change and Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre;
E-mail:
metdept@metmalawi.com; Tel: (265) 1 822014; Fax: (265) 1
822215. Website:
www.metmalawi.com.
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