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PROSPECTS
FOR THE 2009/2010 RAINFALL SEASON IN MALAWI
The thirteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook
Forum (SARCOF-13) was held in
Harare, Zimbabwe from 26 to 27 August 2009
to come up with a consensus climate forecast for the
2009/2010 rainfall season for the SADC region. Climate
scientists from the National Meteorological Services within
the SADC region, including Malawi, have prepared this
consensus forecast using national inputs. Additional
contributions were from the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC,
Botswana), International Research Institute for Climate
Prediction (IRI, USA), European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF, UK) and Climate Prediction
Centre (CPC, USA).
This forecast covers the rainfall season from October 2009
to March 2010 and is relevant only to seasonal time-scales
and relatively large areas. It does not fully account for
local and month to month variations in distribution of
rainfall.
The forecast is based on statistical models that use
scientifically established relationships between rainfall
over Southern Africa and Sea Surface Temperatures over
oceans. Currently,
El Niņo conditions have become established over the tropical
Pacific and it is very likely that these conditions will
continue at least through the remainder of 2009 and probably
up to March 2010.
El Niņo conditions are usually associated with below normal
rainfall over a greater part of Southern Africa and above
normal over Eastern Africa. However, not all El Niņo events
are associated with below normal rainfall over Malawi, for
instance the 1997/98 season.
The climate models used in the thirteenth Southern Africa
Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-13) indicate that
during the period October to December 2009, the northern
half of Malawi has 35% chance of rainfall total being above
normal, 40% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being
below normal while the Southern half has 40% chance of
rainfall total being above normal, 35% chance of being
normal and 25% chance of being below normal. During the
period January to March 2010, the northern half of Malawi
has 40% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 35%
chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal
while the Southern half has 35% chance of rainfall total
being above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 25%
chance of being below normal.
In summary, the models suggest that during 2009/2010
rainfall season, a greater part of Malawi will experience
normal total rainfall amounts. However, just like in any El
Niņo
season, extreme weather events such as floods and
prolonged dry spells may occur in some places.
This seasonal forecast is issued to users as a planning
tool. For day to day operations, users are advised to make
use of the short and medium range forecasts and the 10-day
Rainfall and Agrometeorological bulletin.
For further information and interpretation of this seasonal
forecast, users are advised to contact the Director of
Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre; E-mail:
metdept@metmalawi.com; Tel: (265) 1 822014; Fax: (265)
1 822215. Website:
www.metmalawi.com. Users from the agricultural sector
are advised to seek advice from the Ministry of Agriculture
and Food Security when applying this forecast in making
decisions to plant.
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