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PROSPECTS FOR THE
2009/2010 RAINFALL SEASON IN MALAWI
The thirteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum
(SARCOF-13) was held in
Harare, Zimbabwe from 26 to 27 August 2009
to come up with a consensus climate forecast for the 2009/2010
rainfall season for the SADC region. Climate scientists from
the National Meteorological Services within the SADC region,
including Malawi, have prepared this consensus forecast using
national inputs. Additional contributions were from the SADC
Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC, Botswana), International
Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI, USA), European
Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF, UK) and
Climate Prediction Centre (CPC, USA).
This forecast covers the rainfall season from October 2009 to
March 2010 and is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and
relatively large areas. It does not fully account for local and
month to month variations in distribution of rainfall.
The forecast is based on statistical models that use
scientifically established relationships between rainfall over
Southern Africa and Sea Surface Temperatures over oceans.
Currently,
El Niņo conditions have become established over the tropical
Pacific and it is very likely that these conditions will
continue at least through the remainder of 2009 and probably up
to March 2010.
El Niņo conditions are usually associated with below normal
rainfall over a greater part of Southern Africa and above normal
over Eastern Africa. However, not all El Niņo events are
associated with below normal rainfall over Malawi, for instance
the 1997/98 season.
The climate models used in the thirteenth Southern Africa
Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-13) indicate that during
the period October to December 2009, the northern half of Malawi
has 35% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 40% chance
of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal while the
Southern half has 40% chance of rainfall total being above
normal, 35% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below
normal. During the period January to March 2010, the northern
half of Malawi has 40% chance of rainfall total being above
normal, 35% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below
normal while the Southern half has 35% chance of rainfall total
being above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 25% chance of
being below normal.
In summary, the models suggest that during 2009/2010 rainfall
season, a greater part of Malawi will experience normal total
rainfall amounts. However, just like in any El Niņo
season, extreme weather events such as floods and prolonged
dry spells may occur in some places.
This seasonal forecast is issued to users as a planning tool.
For day to day operations, users are advised to make use of the
short and medium range forecasts and the 10-day Rainfall and
Agrometeorological bulletin.
For further information and interpretation of this seasonal
forecast, users are advised to contact the Director of Climate
Change and Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre;
E-mail: metdept@metmalawi.com; Tel: (265) 1 822014; Fax:
(265) 1 822215. Website:
www.metmalawi.com. Users from the agricultural sector are
advised to seek advice from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food
Security when applying this forecast in making decisions to
plant.
Short and medium range
forecasts and the 10 day rainfall bulletin can be accessed from the
department's official website as well as by email.
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