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Towards More Reliable, Responsive and High Quality Weather and Climate Services in Malawi

  BE WISE, BE WEATHERWISE  

PROSPECTS FOR THE 2009/2010 RAINFALL SEASON IN MALAWI 

The thirteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-13) was held in Harare, Zimbabwe from 26 to 27 August 2009 to come up with a consensus climate forecast for the 2009/2010 rainfall season for the SADC region.  Climate scientists from the National Meteorological Services within the SADC region, including Malawi, have prepared this consensus forecast using national inputs.  Additional contributions were from the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC, Botswana), International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI, USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF, UK) and Climate Prediction Centre (CPC, USA).  

This forecast covers the rainfall season from October 2009 to March 2010 and is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and relatively large areas. It does not fully account for local and month to month variations in distribution of rainfall.  

The forecast is based on statistical models that use scientifically established relationships between rainfall over Southern Africa and Sea Surface Temperatures over oceans. Currently, El Niņo conditions have become established over the tropical Pacific and it is very likely that these conditions will continue at least through the remainder of 2009 and probably up to March 2010. 

El Niņo conditions are usually associated with below normal rainfall over a greater part of Southern Africa and above normal over Eastern Africa. However, not all El Niņo events are associated with below normal rainfall over Malawi, for instance the 1997/98 season. 

 The climate models used in the thirteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-13) indicate that during the period October to December 2009, the northern half of Malawi has 35% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal while the Southern half has 40% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 35% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal. During the period January to March 2010, the northern half of Malawi has 40% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 35% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal while the Southern half has 35% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal. 

In summary, the models suggest that during 2009/2010 rainfall season, a greater part of Malawi will experience normal total rainfall amounts. However, just like in any El Niņo season, extreme weather events such as floods and prolonged dry spells may occur in some places. 

This seasonal forecast is issued to users as a planning tool. For day to day operations, users are advised to make use of the short and medium range forecasts and the 10-day Rainfall and Agrometeorological bulletin.  

For further information and interpretation of this seasonal forecast, users are advised to contact the Director of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre; E-mail: metdept@metmalawi.com;   Tel: (265) 1 822014;     Fax: (265) 1 822215. Website: www.metmalawi.com. Users from the agricultural sector are advised to seek advice from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security when applying this forecast in making decisions to plant.

Short and medium range forecasts and the 10 day rainfall bulletin can be accessed from the department's official website as well as by email.

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