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PROSPECTS FOR
THE 2011/2012 RAINFALL SEASON IN MALAWI
SUMMARY: Normal
total rainfall amounts are expected over most parts of Malawi
during the 2011/2012 rainfall season.
_____________________________________________________________________
Climate scientists from the National Meteorological Services within
the SADC region, including Malawi, met from 17th to
28th August 2011 in
Windhoek, Namibia. The aim of the meeting was
to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2011/2012 rainfall
season for the SADC region. This was presented to users at the
fifteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum
(SARCOF-15) which took place
from 29th to 31st August 2011 at the same
venue.
The consensus forecast was prepared using national inputs with
additional contributions from International Research Institute
for Climate Prediction (IRI, USA), National Centre for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP, USA), European Centre for Medium
Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), UK Met Office, and Meteo
France. The rainfall seasonal forecast is based on models that
use scientifically established relationships between rainfall
over Southern Africa and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over
the oceans. While some models continue
to predict El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral
conditions which imply neither El Nino nor La Nina, the majority
are predicting increasingly negative SSTs (cooling) in the
central tropical Pacific Ocean, implying the return of La Nina
conditions, up to March 2012.
For Malawi, the consensus outlook indicates that during the
period October to December 2011, the northern half of the
country has 35% chance of rainfall total being above normal, 40%
chance of being normal and 25% chance of being below normal
while the Southern half has 25% chance of rainfall total being
above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 35% chance of being
below normal. During the period January to March 2012, the
northern half of Malawi has 35% chance of rainfall total being
above normal, 40% chance of being normal and 25% chance of being
below normal while the Southern half has 40% chance of rainfall
total being above normal, 35% chance of being normal and 25%
chance of being below normal.
Based on the above analysis, the 2011/2012 forecast indicates
that from October to December 2011, the northern half of the
country will receive normal to above normal total rainfall
amounts while the southern half will experience normal to below
normal total rainfall amounts. The greater part of the country
will experience normal to above normal total rainfall amounts
during January to March 2012.
This forecast covers the rainfall season from October 2011 to
March 2012 and is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and
relatively large areas. It does not fully account for local and
month to month variations in distribution of rainfall such as
localised dry spells and flash floods.
This seasonal forecast is issued to users as a planning tool.
For day to day operations, users are advised to make use of the
available short and medium range forecasts and the 10-day
Rainfall and Agrometeorological bulletin.
For further information contact: The Director of Climate Change
and Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre; E-mail:
metdept@metmalawi.com; Tel: (265) 1 822014; Fax: (265) 1
822215. Website:
www.metmalawi.com.
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