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PROSPECTS FOR THE 2012/2013 RAINFALL SEASON IN MALAWI
SUMMARY:Normal
rainfall amounts are expected over most parts of Malawi during
the 2012/2013 rainfall season.
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Climate scientists from
the National Meteorological Services within the Southern Africa
Development Community (SADC) region, including Malawi, met from
13th to 22nd August 2012 in Harare,
Zimbabwe. The aim of the meeting was to come up with a consensus
forecast for the 2012/2013 rainfall season for the SADC region.
This was presented to users at the Sixteenth Southern Africa
Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-16) which took place from
23rd to 24th August 2012 at the same
venue.
The consensus rainfall
forecast was prepared using national inputs with additional
contributions from
International Research
Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI, USA), European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF, UK), UK Met Office,
SADC Climate Services Centre(CSC), Intergovernmental Authority
on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
(ICPAC), and Climate Prediction Centre (CPC, USA).
The seasonal rainfall
forecast is based on models that use scientifically established
relationships between rainfall over Southern Africa and Sea
Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the oceans. Most of the models
are predicting weak El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
conditions indicating warming in the central tropical Pacific
Ocean up to March 2013.
For Malawi, the
consensus outlook indicates that
during
the period October 2012 to March 2013, Malawi has 35% chance of
rainfall total being above normal, 40% chance of being normal
and 25% chance of being below normal.
Based on
the above analysis for 2012/2013 rainfall season, Malawi is
expected to experience normal rainfall amounts. Extreme weather
events such as floods will occur in low lying areas. Since El
Niņo conditions are becoming established, prolonged dry spells
cannot be ruled out.
This
forecast covers the rainfall season from October 2012 to March
2013 and is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and relatively
large areas. It does not fully account for local, day to day and
month to month variations in distribution of rainfall.
This seasonal forecast is issued to users as a planning tool.
For day to day operations, users are advised to make use of the
available short and medium range forecasts and the 10-day
Rainfall and Agrometeorological bulletin.
For further information contact: The Director of Climate Change
and Meteorological Services, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre; E-mail:
metdept@metmalawi.com;
Tel: (265) 1 822014; Fax
Short and medium range
forecasts and the 10 day rainfall bulletin can be accessed from the
department's official website as well as by email.
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